Soooo, how do Economists forecast future growth in Transport?

Transport Demand refers to demand for all transport goods and services such as cars and train journeys. This can be estimated in many various ways such as through extrapolating, surveys and statistical models. The reason why this is done it so that there's adequate transport structure to meet the needs (demand) of citizens in the country but this question may relate to transport demand in a global perspective for which the same idea holds true.

In many western countries such as the United Kingdom over the century data has been collected on transport demand. This includes transport modes such as Canals, Bikes, Trains, Rail and Planes. In addition rough estimates are known about the amount of users for these transport types. This data is usually shown on graphs, using these graphs economist can extrapolate by drawing a line of best and can make future predictions using this.

Similarly Economists can forecast demand for Transport by analysing previous trends and predicting using these, as this show the behaviour of the transport demand over time, therefore this is a very beneficial method. In particular trends relating GDP and Demand for transport demand will be even more helpful as this can show trends in regard to economic cycles and the notorious boom and bust periods.

Another way transport demand can be forecasted is by checking forecast for GDP growth, which could possibly identify demand declines which can be caused by expected high fuel prices in the future or prices of vehicle components. The decline could be caused by major technological advances such as the internet, which has discouraged derived demand for travel as consumption can now be done conveniently by consumers at home. However the fall in consumer travel demand can possibly be replaced by an increased travel demand from firms, who now as a result of the internet make more deliveries.

Another way forecast can be made is by questioning transport users about their expected future behaviour by conducting surveys which are representative, so reliable and valid data can be obtained. Statistical models utilising variables, such as interest rates, inflation rates, unemployment can also be created which will again take advantage of valuable past information and trends.